Moving plates in the Golden State: is it great that we knew the date? Let's debate
About a month ago, Twitter emailed me to let me know I was being followed by EQAlert, a k a the Earthquake Alert Guy. I followed him back, knowing that with the next major earthquake, he would be in the mix and I’d get to see if he lived up to his claim: he has apparently “had accurate EQ Alerts out before all major earthquakes for practically ten years now!!!”
There is no way to accurately predict earthquakes, according to my Dynamic Earth professor. There are indicators, but no foolproof way to know where and when one will hit. The times people are right, he says, are the times they are lucky. Hmm.
Yesterday, at 5:39pm, an update from EQAlert showed up in my twitterstream:
They are getting a lot of foreshocks around the Pacific Tectonic Plate. Honshu is due for Beulah resultant 7.6 and watch West Coast. EQ Guy
And watch the West Coast I did. At 11:42am, a strong, 5.4 magnitude earthquake hit the L.A. area and was felt in Las Vegas. Luckily, there are no deaths so far—just minor damage to some buildings and some power outages.
So, EQ Alert Guy did a pretty good job of giving a heads up. He said that we should watch the West Coast. But, he didn’t know when or specifically where an earthquake would happen. I’d say his update was “accurate,” but not remarkably helpful. I could say “watch the west coast of South America this week!” and probably be right on the money.
I am going to stick with my professor’s opinion until I see people predicting locations and timing of earthquakes consistently and nearly exactly. EQ Alert Guy: if you’re here, just know that I am pretty impressed. Like 5.4 out of 10 impressed.*
*Note: earthquake magnitude measurements are not “out of 10” — in fact, the ratings can be very misleading. An earthquake with a “5” rating causes 10 times more shaking and releases 32 times the energy of an earthquake rated “4.”
Image: Inland News Today
UPDATE 8:54p July 30: EQAlert posted this twitter message about noon today:
There was a letter to California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council or CEPEC, that I started but never sent dated July 23. 2008
I wonder how seriously they would have taken this supposed letter.
